California voters have now received their mail ballots, and the November eight full general election has entered its final stage. Amongst rising prices and economical uncertainty—equally well every bit deep partisan divisions over social and political bug—Californians are processing a bang-up bargain of information to assist them choose state constitutional officers and state legislators and to make policy decisions virtually country propositions. The 2022 midterm election likewise features a closely divided Congress, with the likelihood that a few races in California may determine which party controls the U.s. House.
These are among the cardinal findings of a statewide survey on state and national issues conducted from October xiv to 23 past the Public Policy Establish of California:
Many Californians accept negative perceptions of their personal finances and the US economy.
Seventy-6 percent rate the nation’s economic system as “not so skilful” or “poor.” 30-nine percent say their finances are “worse off” today than a year ago. Forty-seven pct say that things in California are going in the right management, while 33 percentage think things in the Usa are going in the correct management; partisans differ in their overall outlook.→
Among likely voters, 55 percentage would vote for Gavin Newsom and 36 per centum would vote for Brian Dahle if the governor’due south election were today. Partisans are deeply divided in their choices. Threescore percent are very or fairly closely following news about the governor’due south race. Sixty-2 percent are satisfied with the candidate choices in the governor’s election.→
When likely voters are read the ballot title and labels, 34 percent would vote yeah on Proffer 26 (sports betting at tribal casinos), 26 percent would vote aye on Proposition 27 (online sports gambling),
and 41 percent would vote yes on Proposition 30 (reducing greenhouse gases). Most probable voters say they are not personally interested in sports betting, and 48 percentage think it would be a “bad thing” if it became legal in the state. Fewer than half of probable voters say the vote outcome of Propositions 26, 27, or 30 is very important to them.→
50-six percent of likely voters would support the Autonomous candidate in their The states Business firm race if the ballot were today. Sixty-one percentage say the consequence of ballgame rights is very important in their vote for Congress this year; Democrats are far more likely than Republicans or independents to concord this view. About half are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; 54 per centum of Republicans and Democrats, and 41 pct of independents, are highly enthusiastic this year.→
40-5 per centum of Californians and xl percentage of probable voters are satisfied with the manner that democracy is working in the United states of america.
Republicans are far less likely than Democrats and independents to agree this positive view. In that location is rare partisan consensus on one topic: majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are pessimistic that Americans with different political views can still come together and work out their differences.→
- Majorities of California adults and likely voters approve of Governor Gavin Newsom and President Joe Biden. About 4 in ten or more California adults and probable voters corroborate of Usa Senator Dianne Feinstein and US Senator Alex Padilla. These blessing ratings vary across partisan groups. Blessing of the state legislature is higher than approval of the Us Congress.→
With less than two weeks to go until what is set to be a highly consequential midterm ballot, California adults are divided on whether the state is generally headed in the right direction (47%) or wrong direction (48%); a majority of likely voters (54%) think the land is headed in the incorrect direction (43% right management). Similar shares held this view final month (wrong direction: 44% adults, 49% probable voters; right direction: 50% adults, 48% likely voters). Today, at that place is a wide partisan divide: seven in ten Democrats are optimistic about the direction of the country, while 91 percentage of Republicans and 59 percent of independents are pessimistic. Majorities of residents in the Cardinal Valley and Orange/San Diego say the state is going in the wrong direction, while a majority in the San Francisco Bay Area say right direction; adults elsewhere are divided. Across demographic groups, Californians ages 18 to 34 (lx%), Asian Americans (52%), higher graduates (52%), renters (52%), and women (52%) are the only groups in which a majority are optimistic nigh California’s direction.
Californians are much more pessimistic most the direction of the country than they are about the management of the country. Solid majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (71%) say the The states is going in the incorrect direction, and majorities accept held this view since September 2021. I in three or fewer adults (33%) and likely voters (25%) think the state is going in the right direction. Majorities across all demographic groups and partisan groups, equally well as beyond regions, are pessimistic most the direction of the U.s..
The state of the economy and inflation are likely to play a critical office in the upcoming ballot, and about four in ten adults (39%) and probable voters (43%) say they and their family are worse off financially than they were a year ago. Similar shares say they are financially in nearly the same spot (43% adults, 44% likely voters). The share who feel they are worse off has risen slightly amidst likely voters since May, but is similar among adults (37% adults, 36% likely voters). Fewer than two in ten Californians say they are better off than they were ane year ago (17% adults, thirteen% likely voters). A wide partisan divide exists: most Democrats and independents say their financial situation is about the same as a year ago, while solid majorities of Republicans say they are worse off. Regionally, about one-half in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles say they are almost the same, while half in the Central Valley say they are worse off; residents elsewhere are divided between beingness worse off and the same. Beyond demographic groups, pluralities say they are either financially about the aforementioned as final yr or worse off, with the exception of African Americans (51% about the same, 33% worse off, 16% amend off) and Asian Americans (51% about the same, 27% worse off, 20% meliorate off). The shares proverb they are worse off decline as educational attainment increases.
With persistent inflation and concerns about a possible recession in the future, an overwhelming bulk of Californians believe the US economy is in not then good (43% adults, xl% likely voters) or poor (33% adults, 36% likely voters) shape. About a quarter of adults (three% fantabulous, 20% expert) and probable voters (two% excellent, 23% practiced) feel positively near the national economy. Potent majorities across partisan groups feel negatively, but Republicans and independents are much more probable than Democrats to say the economy is in poor shape. Solid majorities across the state’s major regions as well as all demographic groups say the economy is in not then practiced or poor shape. In a recent ABC News/Washington Postal service poll, 24 percent (iii% excellent, 21% good) of adults nationwide felt positively most the US economy, while 74 pct (36% non so good, 38% poor) expressed negative views.
Six in x likely voters say they are following news well-nigh the 2022 governor’due south race very (25%) or fairly (35%) closely—a share that has risen from half just a month ago (17% very, 33% fairly). This finding is somewhat like to October 2018, when 68 percent said this (28% very, forty% closely) a calendar month before the previous gubernatorial election. Today, majorities across partisan, demographic, and regional groups say they are following news about the gubernatorial election either very or adequately closely. The shares saying they are post-obit the news very closely is highest among residents in Republican districts (39%), Republicans (30%), whites (29%), and adults with incomes of $40,000 to $79,999 (29%). Older probable voters (27%) are slightly more probable than younger probable voters (21%) to say they are following the news closely.
Democratic incumbent Gavin Newsom is alee of Republican Brian Dahle (55% to 36%) amongst likely voters, while few say they would not vote, would vote for neither, or don’t know who they would vote for in the governor’s race. The share supporting the reelection of the governor was similar a month ago (58% Newsom, 31% Dahle). Today, Newsom enjoys the support of near Democrats (91%), while nigh Republicans (86%) support Dahle; Newsom has an border over Dahle among independent likely voters (47% Newsom, 37% Dahle). Beyond the country’s regions, 2 in three in the San Francisco Bay Expanse and Los Angeles support Newsom, equally exercise nearly half in the Inland Empire and Orange/San Diego; probable voters in the Key Valley are split. Newsom leads in all demographic groups, with the exception of men (45% Newsom, 44% Dahle) and those with a high school diploma only (46% Newsom, 49% Dahle). The share supporting Newsom grows as educational attainment increases (46% high school only, 56% some college, 60% college graduates), while it decreases with rising income (64% less than $40,000, 56% $40,000 to $79,999, 52% $80,000 or more).
A solid majority of likely voters (62%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the Nov viii election, while well-nigh three in ten (32%) are not satisfied. Shares expressing satisfaction take increased somewhat from a month ago (53%) and were similar prior to the 2018 gubernatorial election (60% October 2018). Today, a solid bulk of Democrats (79%) and independents (61%) say they are satisfied, compared to fewer than half of Republicans (44%). Majorities across demographic groups say they are satisfied, and notably, women (68%) are more likely than men (56%) to say this. Majorities across the land’due south regions say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the upcoming gubernatorial election.
State Propositions 26, 27, and 30
In the upcoming November 8 ballot, there will be 7 state propositions for voters. Due to time constraints, our survey but asked about 3 ballot measures: Propositions 26, 27, and xxx. For each, we read the proffer number, ballot, and ballot label. Ii of the country election measures were likewise included in the September survey (Propositions 27 and 30), while Suggestion 26 was not.
If the election were held today, 34 percentage of likely voters would vote “yes,” 57 pct would vote “no,” and ix percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 26—Allows In-Person Roulette, Dice, Game, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands. This measure would let in-person sports betting at racetracks and tribal casinos, requiring that racetracks and casinos offer sports betting make sure payments to the land to support state regulatory costs. It also allows roulette and dice games at tribal casinos and adds a new fashion to enforce sure state gambling laws. There is partisan understanding on Prop 26: fewer than four in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents would vote “aye.” Moreover, less than a majority across all regions and demographic groups—with the exception of likely voters ages 18 to 44 (51% yes, 44% no)—would vote “yes.”
If the election were held today, 26 percent of likely voters would vote “yes,” 67 per centum would vote “no,” and 8 pct are unsure of how they would vote on Suggestion 27—Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Outside Tribal Lands. This citizens’ initiative would allow Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering outside tribal lands. Strong majorities beyond partisan groups would vote “no” on Prop 27. The share voting “yes” has decreased since a month ago (34% September). Today, fewer than iii in 10 across partisan groups would vote “yep” on Prop 27. Moreover, fewer than four in ten across regions, gender, racial/ethnic, education, and income groups would vote “yes.” Likely voters ages 18 to 44 (41%) are far more likely than older probable voters ages 45 and above (nineteen%) to say they would vote “yes.”
If the ballot were held today, 41 percent of probable voters would vote “yep,” 52 percent would vote “no,” and 7 percentage are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 30—Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Forestall Wildfires past Increasing Tax on Personal Income over $two One thousand thousand. This citizens’ initiative would increase taxes on Californians earning more than than $two million annually and classify that tax revenue to zero-emission vehicle purchase incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention. The share saying “yes” on Prop 30 has decreased from 55 percentage in our September survey (note: since September, Governor Newsom has been featured in “no on Prop thirty” commercials). Today, unlike Prop 26 and Prop 27, partisan opinions are divided on Prop thirty: 61 percent of Democrats would vote “yes,” compared to far fewer Republicans (15%) and independents (38%). Across regions, and among men and women, back up falls short of a majority (36% men, 45% women). Fewer than one-half across racial/ethnic groups say they would vote “yes” (39% whites, 42% Latinos, 46% other racial/ethnic groups). But over half of likely voters with incomes under $twoscore,000 (52%) would vote “yes,” compared to fewer in higher-income groups (42% $40,000 to $79,999, 36% $lxxx,000 or more). Near one-half of likely voters ages eighteen to 44 (49%) would vote “aye,” compared to 37 pct of older likely voters.
Fewer than one-half of likely voters say the result of each of these state propositions is very important to them. Today, 21 percent of likely voters say the outcome of Prop 26 is very of import, 31 percent say the outcome of Prop 27 is very important, and 42 percent say the issue of Prop thirty is very important. The shares saying the outcomes are very important to them have remained similar to a month ago for Prop 27 (29%) and Prop thirty (42%). Today, when it comes to the importance of the outcome of Prop 26, one in 4 or fewer beyond partisan groups say information technology is very important to them. Nigh i in three beyond partisan groups say the outcome of Prop 27 is very important to them. Fewer than one-half across partisan groups say the effect of Prop 30 is very of import to them.
When asked how they would vote if the 2022 election for the US House of Representatives were held today, 56 percent of probable voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 39 percentage would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In September, a like share of likely voters preferred the Democratic candidate (60% Democrat/lean Democrat, 34% Republican/lean Republican). Today, overwhelming majorities of partisans support their party’southward candidate, while independents are divided (50% Democrat/lean Democrat, 44% Republican/lean Republican). Democratic candidates are preferred by a 26-bespeak margin in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred past a 23-point margin in Republican-held districts. In the ten competitive California districts as defined past the Cook Political Report, the Democratic candidate is preferred past a 22-point margin (54% to 32%).
Abortion is another prominent issue in this ballot. When asked about the importance of abortion rights, 61 percentage of likely voters say the issue is very important in determining their vote for Congress and another 20 percent say information technology is somewhat important; just 17 pct say information technology is not likewise or not at all of import. Among partisans, an overwhelming majority of Democrats (78%) and 55 pct of independents say it is very important, compared to 43 pct of Republicans. Majorities beyond regions and all demographic groups—with the exception of men (49% very important)—say abortion rights are very of import when making their selection amidst candidates for Congress.
With the controlling party in Congress hanging in the balance, 51 percent of likely voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress this twelvemonth; another 29 percentage are somewhat enthusiastic while 19 pct are either not too or not at all enthusiastic. In October 2018 earlier the last midterm ballot, a similar 53 percent of likely voters were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress (25% extremely, 28% very, 28% somewhat, 10% not too, viii% not at all). Today, Democrats and Republicans have near equal levels of enthusiasm, while independents are much less likely to be extremely or very enthusiastic. Half or more than beyond regions are at to the lowest degree very enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters in Los Angeles (44%) and the San Francisco Bay Expanse (43%). At least half beyond demographic groups are highly enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters earning $40,000 to $79,999 annually (48%), women (47%), Latinos (43%), those with a high school diploma or less (42%), renters (42%), and eighteen- to 44-yr-olds (37%).
Democracy and the Political Divide
As Californians prepare to vote in the upcoming midterm election, fewer than half of adults and likely voters are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the U.s.—and few are very satisfied. Satisfaction was higher in our February survey when 53 pct of adults and 48 percentage of probable voters were satisfied with democracy in America. Today, half of Democrats and most four in ten independents are satisfied, compared to almost i in v Republicans. Notably, four in ten Republicans are not at all satisfied. Across regions, half of residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (52%) and the Inland Empire (50%) are satisfied, compared to fewer elsewhere. Across demographic groups, fewer than one-half are satisfied, with the exception of Latinos (56%), those with a high school caste or less (55%), and those making less than $40,000 (53%).
In addition to the lack of satisfaction with the way democracy is working, Californians are divided most whether Americans of dissimilar political positions tin can all the same come together and work out their differences. Forty-nine per centum are optimistic, while 46 percentage are pessimistic. Optimism has been similar in more recent years, but has decreased 7 points since nosotros first asked this question in September 2017 (56%). In September 2020, just before the 2020 general election, Californians were also divided (47% optimistic, 49% pessimistic).
Today, in a rare moment of bipartisan agreement, most 4 in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents are optimistic that Americans of unlike political views will be able to come together. Across regions, about half in Orangish/San Diego, the Inland Empire, and the San Francisco Bay Area are optimistic. Across demographic groups, only the following groups take a majority or more who are optimistic: African Americans and Latinos (61% each), those with a high school diploma or less (63%), and those with household incomes under $xl,000 (61%). Notably, in 2017, half or more across parties, regions, and demographic groups were optimistic.
With about two weeks to go before Governor Newsom’s bid for reelection, a majority of Californians (54%) and probable voters (52%) corroborate of the mode he is handling his job, while fewer disapprove (33% adults, 45% likely voters). Approving was about identical in September (52% adults, 55% likely voters) and has been fifty percentage or more since January 2020. Today, about viii in 10 Democrats—compared to about half of independents and about one in ten Republicans—approve of Governor Newsom. Half or more across regions approve of Newsom, except in the Central Valley (42%). Across demographic groups, about half or more than corroborate of how Governor Newsom is handling his job.
With all 80 state associates positions and half of state senate seats upwardly for election, fewer than half of adults (49%) and likely voters (43%) corroborate of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job. Views are deeply divided along partisan lines; approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Expanse and lowest in Orange/San Diego. Near half across racial/indigenous groups corroborate, and approval is much higher among younger Californians.
Majorities of California adults (53%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the way President Biden is handling his job, while fewer disapprove (43% adults, 47% likely voters). Approving is similar to September (53% adults and likely voters), and Biden’southward approval rating among adults has been at 50 percent or college since nosotros showtime asked this question in January 2021. Today, nigh eight in ten Democrats approve of Biden’s job operation, compared to about 4 in ten independents and i in 10 Republicans. Approval is higher in the San Francisco Bay Expanse and Los Angeles than in the Inland Empire, Orangish/San Diego, and the Fundamental Valley. About one-half or more across demographic groups corroborate of President Biden, with the exception of those with some college instruction (44%).
Blessing of Congress remains depression, with fewer than four in x adults (37%) and likely voters (29%) approving. Approval of Congress amidst adults has been below xl percent for all of 2022 later seeing a cursory run higher up 40 per centum for all of 2021. Democrats are far more probable than Republicans to corroborate of Congress. Fewer than half across regions and demographic groups corroborate of Congress.
US Senator Alex Padilla is on the California ballot twice this November—once for the remainder of Vice President Harris’south term and once for reelection. Senator Padilla has the approval of 46 percent of adults and 48 percent of likely voters (adults: 26% disapprove, 29% don’t know; likely voters: 31% disapprove, 22% don’t know). Approving in March was at 44 percent for adults and 39 percent for likely voters. Today, Padilla’southward approving rating is much college amidst Democrats than independents and Republicans. Across regions, nearly half in the San Francisco Bay Expanse, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire approve of the US senator, compared to iv in ten in Orangish/San Diego and 1 in iii in the Primal Valley. Beyond demographic groups, nigh half or more corroborate among women, younger adults, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos. Views are similar across education and income groups, with but fewer than half approving.
U.s.a. Senator Dianne Feinstein—who is not on the California election this November—has the approving of 41 percent of adults and likely voters (adults: 42% disapprove, 17% don’t know; likely voters: 52% disapprove, seven% don’t know). Approval in March was at 41 per centum for adults and 36 percent for likely voters. Today, Feinstein’due south approval rating is far higher among Democrats and independents than Republicans. Beyond regions, approving reaches a bulk but in the San Francisco Bay Area. Beyond demographic groups, approval reaches a majority just amid African Americans
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